With the current condition in the West Philippines Sea, rumors about the possible outburst of World War III have been trending since January 2020.
A year later, the same rumor resurfaces. This time, however, with multiple and possible break-out points.
Here’s the tea
Did you know that China has suffered over 470 offenses and invasions since the Opium War in 1840 – all deeply rooted in maritime disputes?
No lie, the Philippines have always had beef with China since the whole West Philippine Sea fiasco. As early as January 1996, three Chinese naval vessels had a 90-minute battle against a Philippine navy gunboat near Capones Island in the Mischief Reef, which is a part of the Spratly chain islands claimed by Manila. This is the first time China has engaged in military confrontation against an ASEAN country besides Vietnam.
The clash between China and the Philippines immediately revived the latter’s military ties with the United States, with the US Navy SEALs conducting a joint exercise with their Philippine counterparts in Palawan. However, former President Fidel Ramos then denied its connection to Manila’s row with Beijing, only with the tensions to eventually subside when the Philippines and China signed a non-binding code of conduct for a peaceful resolution to the territorial dispute and the promotion of confidence-building measures.
Twenty-five years later, however, it was far from a peaceful resolution.
The question is, why are these countries after the West Philippine Sea?
First things first, in China’s perspective, we are in the way, literally.
China strategists have this “first island chain” that runs from Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and with the Philippines in the way, China can’t control its near seas – the East China Sea and the South China Sea. These countries form a chain around China’s neck, resulting in chokepoints that may hinder its global ambition.
However, we’re not only talking about the US and China, but the rest of Southeast Asia too. The Philippines’ maritime and archipelagic makeup makes the West Philippine Sea of serious national importance. Due to its convenient location, it’s a strategic line of defense and an excellent resource spot where most of the country’s indigenous oil and gas come from. With China collecting as many natural and artificial resources as possible, the West Philippine Sea is like a gold mine.
These are probably why the trilateral Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) from 2005 to 2008 was publicly criticized due to its large coverage of the Philippines’ western Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which includes the gas-rich Recto Bank. Coming from previous experience, President Duterte’s July 2017 statement about talks of joint exploration for oil and gas (which was, by the way, progressing in a 60-40 joint oil exploration deal) in the West Philippine Sea already in place may or may not yield a similar reaction from the public.
Assertion ≠ Aggression
China has two completely different strategies in dealing with President Duterte and the Philippines. To deal with President Duterte, China seems to butter him up as much as possible, all the while instilling fear and suggesting dependency on the latter. It almost seems like China’s donation of 1 million Sinovac-made vaccines for COVID-19 somewhat sketchy. Sure, it may or may not be done out of good intentions, but paired side-by-side with the recent military confrontations in the West Philippine Sea, the combination doesn’t quite add up.
In the face of disrespect, in any circumstance, the first instinct is to fight back. That is if you’re just a bystander. Things are different when you’re the one being attacked – compared to the bystander, you have something (even everything) to lose. Everything needs to be planned and calculated, and truly, impulsive aggression in the form of violence isn’t always a good choice. This is when diplomacy becomes a wiser option.
Now you might be thinking, we’ve been negotiating with China all these years, but to no avail.
We held diplomacy and international laws to such high regard (as we should) yet all this time, we’ve been doing it one-sidedly. The Philippines’ long commitment to maintaining good relations with its neighbors had been preventing us from strengthening and improving our military facilities in our claimed portions of the West Philippine Sea.
Maybe it’s time to step up our game, especially with China being as aggressive in the middle of the pandemic.
Will assertion really cause a war?
As recent as April 2021, the Philippines accused Beijing of promoting a “false narrative” of its “illegitimate” claims in the disputed West Philippine Sea. This marks Manila’s latest diplomatic move on its weeks-long feud with China – which undoubtedly strained diplomatic ties
Philippine diplomats and top generals have spoken out against China, but what’s even more surprising is how comments from the presidential palace were unusually strong.
According to international studies professor Renato de Castro of De la Salle University in Manila in a statement, “they (Philippine officials) are seeing the footprints leading to a Chinese seizure again of this (Whitsun Reef) feature and transforming it into an artificial island then possibly a garrison.” What’s even more suspicious is how the Chinese embassy claims that the presence of nearly 200 Chinese ships in the Whitsun Reef was merely sheltering from adverse weather conditions when there were none.
These statements were especially ironic given President Duterte’s reluctance in confronting the Chinese government, to which he has sought to befriend. According to him, challenging China would be pointless and might even trigger a war – the most feared World War III.
War of fear? Probably not the type of war you’ve imagined
Even in micro-social situations, direct confrontations aren’t as well-received as they used to be. This is how the Cold War became a thing – it reflects the society’s repulsion on conventional or one-on-one attacks.
A great example of China’s not-so-subtle (yet indirect) strategy mimicking the Cold War is the so-called “cabbage strategy.” According to ABC New network’s former Beijing bureau chief as well as China specialist Chito Santa Romana, this strategy uses several layers of blockages (as in a cabbage) to try and “squeeze out” the Philippines from its own territory.
The outermost layer of this “cabbage strategy” involves Chinese fishermen, which were probably the most prominent out of the three layers we’re about to mention. Protecting the Chinese fishermen were the Chinese Military Surveillance or the CMS, which is a paramilitary maritime unit, the Fisheries Law Enforcement Command or the FLEC, and the warships of the navy. Both the CMS and the FLEC were still considered to be civilian units, whereas said warships of the navy hover protectively with the rest of the layers.
Once the Philippines physically fights back on any single layer of this “cabbage,” China can easily strike back (stronger than it should be), then justify it as a defense. It can easily turn the situation around, making the Philippines in the area of (unfavorable) offense, whereas China becomes the (rational) defense. Provocation to signal a “justified” attack seems to be the main goal of this strategy, which all the more shows how diplomacy might be the only way out of this.
The Philippines vs. China no more
Unfortunately, China’s cabbage strategy combined with its fear-inducing psyches is working in the Philippines, for now.
Remember the phrase for now.
Over time, China’s strategies could backfire on its own, as the rest of its neighbors will start to be wary of its intentions. Is China solely after the West Philippine Sea, or is it planning to expand its territory? We’ll never know, so does the rest of Southeast Asia, which is why it’s not impossible for these countries to band together.
Sounds familiar, right?
Based on superiority in numbers and weaponry alone, the Philippines would have no chance against a first-world country like China. Former Philippine foreign secretary Domingo Siazon even described it as something similar to a fight between an elephant and an ant. However, this doesn’t always equate to victory.
Sure, military conflict might be easy to win, but an ant like the Philippines could benefit from hopping on a bigger elephant on its back. In this case, the elephant seems to be the United States. As this ally resulted in a stinging commentary in the People’s Daily of the Communist Party of China calling the Philippines “a crying child,” it would be wiser to gather a herd. Aside from the USA, Secretary Siazon suggests that it should strengthen its defense ties with Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, and Singapore.
Another (yet somewhat similar) resort would be to have a multilateral approach to resolving maritime territorial boundaries. That is, to have diplomatic talks with the rest of the claimants, more specifically, ASEAN members, and come up with a solution that respects regional, national, and international laws, all the while discouraging the use of force.
At this point, we have China’s attitude as the common denominator once these countries come together – which may or may not intimidate China and cease future attacks.
The influence of capitalism
Whether we like it or not, capitalism controls the world. Now, which country benefits the most from capitalism?
China.
Its military aggressiveness to the West Philippine Sea might not be a clear invitation of a World War III, as doing so would be highly damaging to a world well-controlled by capitalism.
Compared to the olden days of World War I and II, superpower countries such as China are no longer interested in military conquering the world. Instead, they are more after highly influencing the world through commercial and economic means.
Aside from capitalism, globalization also plays a huge role in the resistance to World War III. The world is now connected with a globalized economy, and recovering the damages that could be possibly brought by another world war would take up a lot of a country’s already dilapidating financial assets. Economically speaking, it wouldn’t be worth it.
Will this ‘tea’ ever stop brewing?
While World War III caused by this ‘tea’ between the Philippines and China may seem improbable for now, it’s easy to get caught in the aggression and equate it to war (just as President Duterte did). Such an opinion is valid though since the Philippines is an archipelago and we’re not sharing any land boundary, yet we still got an unwanted presence suspiciously near our shores. Our geography alone could get us to such huge global attention.
The resources offered by geography may offer certain riches and/or privileges inaccessible to certain parts of the world, hence it’s easy to say how geography shapes a society – and understanding how the society hugely affects each and every one of us, in a way, maybe, geography can tell one’s destiny.
Bicol Times
